A dark horse pick means little unless the analyst backs it up with a real reason. Rece Davis did exactly that on the College GameDay podcast, naming USC as the team he believes can push its way into the 2026 College Football Playoff field.

Every season brings a handful of teams tabbed as surprise contenders without much behind the label, and Davis made clear his pick for USC comes from a specific evaluation of the roster, not a guess pulled from thin air.

Rece Davis names USC as his surprise CFP team

Davis was asked to name the most surprising team in his projected playoff field. He pointed to USC and its quarterback as the reason behind the pick, choosing the Trojans over teams that have drawn more preseason hype through the offseason.

"I don't know if this is a massive surprise, but it's going to alleviate a lot of pressure," Davis said. "I believe in Jayden Maiava. I've got USC making the field. So, I think, I think SC will be in the playoffs, so that's the moderate surprise."

Davis calling USC only a "moderate surprise" says as much as the pick itself. He isn't reaching for a random name to fill a segment. Maiava gives him a real, specific reason to trust the Trojans over teams with more preseason buzz. USC has not made the College Football Playoff since Lincoln Riley took over the program, and Davis is betting that this is the season the drought ends. The pick puts USC ahead of several Big Ten programs that entered the offseason with louder national expectations.

What USC and Jayden Maiava making the playoff would mean

First, a playoff berth would hopefully alleviate some of the hot seat pressure facing head coach Lincoln Riley.

Having his top signal-caller on the sidelines again is a big boost to this team. Maiava returns to USC after turning down the 2026 NFL Draft to run it back for Riley. He led the Big Ten in passing yards last season and posted the top QBR in the country entering his bowl game. Pro Football Focus ranked him among the top five deep passers in the country heading into 2026.

USC finished the 2025 regular season 9-3 under Riley, with Maiava directing one of the conference's most productive passing attacks. The Trojans return 15 starters from that team, including four along the offensive line, and bring in the nation's No. 1 recruiting class to add even more talent around him.

Gary Patterson now runs the defense, a unit Riley has said needed the most work when he first arrived at USC. The pieces are in place for the Trojans to build on last year's finish after Maiava's decision to stay in Los Angeles for another year, with a defense that USC believes is finally deep enough to match its offense.